This entry was posted on 日曜日, 12 月 28th, 2008 at 1:10 PM and is filed under 株・為替・債券, 経済・経営全般. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.


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経済・経営・株式・投資 時事評論


トヨタ、来期売上予想19兆円 営業赤字5000億円 それでも破綻後のGMを合併、吸収するか???
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Strict Standards: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /export/sd06/www/jp/r/e/gmoserver/5/4/sd0012854/brainfact.asia/wordpress/wp-includes/post.php on line 218
2008年12月28日
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トヨタが今期、赤字に転落すると大騒ぎですが、それに関連してトヨタの来期決算が予想されています。野村は営業赤字1兆円、東洋経済は営業赤字2000億円を予想しています。
http://money.jp.msn.com/investor/stock/news/newsarticle.aspx?ac=F05012081224&cc=12&nt=10
http://www.toyokeizai.net/business/strategy/detail/AC/19e8c02
ca7a747d14300a870788ae5e1/
. .
前回、トヨタの第2四半期の決算情報を見て、来期はリストラや原材料の値下がりで、営業損益は±0くらいになるのではと思ったのですが、直近月次の売上が強烈に減少しているようで、それを考慮すると来期の黒字は絶望的に思えます。
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(12月の国内新車販売27%減)
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/news/sangyo/20081227AT1D2609W26122008.html
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/news/main/20081224AT1D2402124122008.html
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30%近い売上の減少は、当然ですが通常の企業なら致命傷に近い下落です。一度急激に30%とか大きく売上が下落した場合、それがすぐに元のレベルに戻るというのは、理由にかかわらず経験的にはほとんどありません。回復にかなり時間がかかると考えるのがオーソドックスだと思います。
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私の個人的な予測です。直近の月次の売上データから推測すると来年度の売上は19兆円になります。営業損益ですが、おそらく5000億円程度の赤字ではないでしょうか。
. .
過去のデータですが、2005年3月期決算での売上が18兆5515億円、営業利益1兆6721億円です。来期の19兆円はそれを若干上回る売上高レベルです。営業利益は為替と販売不振の影響を今期のデータから推測すると5000億円程度の赤字になると予想しています。(円ドルレートの来期予想は80~100円ですが、一時的に70円台突入するとみています。)
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どれだけ販売管理費と人件費を削減できるかという事ですが、いきなり30%落ちた売上をあれだけの大企業が単年でカバーする額を出せるかというと、常識的に考えて無理です。
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また、工場を停止すると言う事もありますが、一般的に工場の完全停止というのはあり得ず(完全停止すると元に戻すのに大変。車でいうとアイドリング状態にしておかなきゃなりません。走ってないけど、走れるようにしておくというやつです)、そのコストも結構かかります。
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以上、このレベルが続く円高による収益減、米国、欧州での売上減少、新興国での売上伸び悩み、減価償却等の影響は、2005年を上回るレベルの売上でも2兆強の利益を吹っ飛ばして、結果5000億円の赤字となると言うわけです。
. .
ここで、、、
それでもGMを破綻後に(破綻すると断言しちゃってますが、すでに実質破綻していますのでそれ前提です。)買いますか?という事ですが、確かに上記の状況を考慮すると大変なリスクです。たとえ、無料で引き取ったとしても、赤字削減のためのリストラコスト、開発・新たな設備投資の費用とかなり投資が必要です。
. .
GMを買収?というか再生するとなるとかなりの条件が必要でしょうね。少なくとも30%の施設を含むリストラ、年金等の整理、負債の削減・リスケ、etc、かなりハードルは高いです。
. .
それとしても、、、
もし、GMを上手く吸収するとトヨタは名実共に世界最大かつ最強の自動車メーカーになります。欧州市場を席巻するのも間違いないでしょう。
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↓良著だと思います。日本の組織論をこういう視点から研究するのは面白いです。失敗にこそ学ぶべき!
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失敗の本質―日本軍の組織論的研究 (中公文庫) |
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2 Responses to “トヨタ、来期売上予想19兆円 営業赤字5000億円 それでも破綻後のGMを合併、吸収するか???”
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1 月 26th, 2009 at 11:20 AM
[...] トヨタ、来期売上予想19兆円 営業赤字5000億円 それでも破綻後のGMを合併、吸収するか??? [...]
1 月 26th, 2009 at 11:20 AM
[...] トヨタ、来期売上予想19兆円 営業赤字5000億円 それでも破綻後のGMを合併、吸収するか??? [...]